2025年4月20日，华东师范大学澳大利亚研究中心主任陈弘接受《环球时报》英文版采访，谈美国关税战阴影下面临搁浅的澳大利亚AUKUS潜艇计划。
Amid US tariff blow, delivery of AUKUS submarines is in serious doubt: analyst
Tariff Photo:VCG
Skepticism over AUKUS - a trilateral defense deal between the US, UK and Australia - has further deepened after the nuclear submarine delivery goals reportedly face challenges due to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminum and a severe shortfall in US shipbuilding capacity.
New US tariffs on steel and aluminum could delay delivery and increase the cost of the nuclear submarines promised to Australia under the AUKUS pact, the South China Morning Post reported on Sunday, citing senior US Senator Tim Kaine, who reportedly told an AUKUS gathering last week in Washington that submarine construction was facing budget and schedule setbacks.
Kaine, the top Democrat on the Senate's sea-power subcommittee, said that about one-third of the steel and aluminum used in US naval vessels comes from allies including Canada and the UK - both now hit with the new tariffs, according to report.
The UK faces a 10 percent levy while Canadian metals are subject to a blanket 25 percent tariff, the SCMP reported.
Earlier this month, Reuters also reported that the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS treaty faces new doubts as US President Donald Trump's tariffs take hold, and amid concern in Washington that providing the vessels to Canberra may reduce deterrence to China.
"From as early as the 2030s, the delivery of three US Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia - ensuring there is no capacity gap," is listed on the Australian government website explaining the AUKUS pact.
Under the AUKUS pact, the UK will deliver its own first SSN-AUKUS in the late 2030s, with the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia delivered in the early 2040s.
However, severe shortfalls in US manufacturing capacity - particularly in shipbuilding, sparked skepticism over delays even before the US blanket tariff was in place,ChenHong, professor and director of the Australian Studies Center at East China Normal University, told the Global Times on Sunday.
The increased tariffs on aluminum and steel products, which came into effect on March 12, have also hit the US' allies, and further strained US manufacturing, including shipbuilding,Chen said.
Under these circumstances, the delivery of AUKUS submarines in the foreseeable future is now in serious doubt,Chen added.
But some Australians still cling to unrealistic expectations, believing that the US will prioritize its staunch allies. "This is a clear disconnect from reality, a significant gap,"Chen said.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), claimed that if Australia were to receive its first Virginia-class submarine in 2033, followed by the remaining two by the end of the next decade, the impact of tariffs could be negligible, the SCMP report said.
There will likely be an aftershock because of the US tariffs, and also because the US is striving to bring manufacturing back to the US, which will absorb up a lot of labor and resources. On top of that, we should question whether the US will have the extra capability to continue constructing the submarines for Australia,Chen said. "The ASPI is still weighing the current US with an obsolete perspective, which is very wishful thinking."
Australia needs to view its relationships with other countries through a clear, rational, and realistic perspective, the expert added.
